Little did I know some four years ago that this day would come. We have Trump re-elected as the US President. Quite a historic comeback.
Some thoughts:
1. Character didn’t matter in the end. History was all forgotten and past political sins forgiven. This election was all about the usual political back-and-forth wave, dissatisfaction to the democratic Biden government.
2. Trump is still a very good, energetic talker at 78. He kept his form. He aced most of his interviews and there were many. He didn’t chicken out or over prepare. He was his authentic self whom everyone knew beforehand. And it did make a contrast to Harris.
3. Trump made a solid VP pick with Vance while the democrats made a poor pick with Walz. Vance was really sharp in every interview I saw him. He represents the next generation. That guy has potential if he just keeps his rhythm.
4. Polls predicted on average like 2-3% points wrong in favor of democrats. The latest had Trump and Harris neck to neck. Harris would win popular vote for sure. Nothing like that happened. The betting markets by contrast knew it all along.
5. While GOP got also the senate and house will go down the wire I don’t expect any major tectonic shifts in US politics. It will be interesting and unpredictable for sure, especially at the start. But Trump 2024 is no Trump 2016. He is today an experienced politician. At 78. He also doesn’t have a team. Very few key people from the previous term will carry over. He needs to recruit all new people who will have a say and influence how to move forward.