It’s been four long years of war in Ukraine. Who ever thought it would get this far? The last time I posted my thoughts on the war was at the end of 2023. Very little has changed.
Russia has kept on grinding on the ground. North Korea and other countries have sent troops to support Russia. Iran has sent drones. Also Ukraine has been supplied by new category of weapons, one by one. Tanks have been taken over by drones, and their power and number just keeps on increasing. Videos from the battlefield speak of almost Terminator-style apocalypse. Ukraine started to hit Russian targets inside Russia with drones and long range missiles. The line of combat has moved towards west but in the grand scheme of things it has been slow and costly. Ukraine is still holding the main lines of defense in Donetsk and right now even gaining some ground again.
Over the past year or so there has been expectations of some kind of peace deal to no avail. When Trump came in 24 hours passed and there was no deal. It seems obvious Putin has no interest to settle the war. After all he started it all with the aim of taking all over Ukraine and he is still there reigning. — Just the other night I watched Metallica’s Moscow concert from 1991. That is the same Russian society out there in the audience. You get a very different picture. Peace is an option once the regime changes.
Zelensky and the Ukrainian heroics are also still there. Zelensky has been touring the world like before and getting back from any momentary setback like what he had one year ago in the Oval Office. While US support has come into question, Europe is still in the middle of getting its act together. Frozen Russian assets remain locked. Hungary keeps on messing around. Not all weapons are available. Security guarantees are at the level of loose talk. Meanwhile Ukraine has built the strongest and most experienced army in Europe. And their own weapons systems. It looks like Ukraine can join the EU one day and will be as close to NATO as any non-member can be.
Overall, we have become so used to the war. The news don’t anymore make the headlines here. And the same seems to apply to those at war. Most notably Putin does not really care. Russia has lost 1M+ troops total out of which reportedly 300k+ as dead but who cares? When Putin started the war he postponed the day to cross the line over the Olympics 2022 just to finish the gold medal match in hockey. Now after the full four year Olympic cycle he didn’t get his team in the games in the first place. What more can he lose?
There is no end in sight to this war as we speak.